Diambil dari berbagai sumber...
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Commercial Paper
Lagi nyoba menjelaskan mekanisme / tata cara penerbitan commercial paper akhir-akhir ini... Apa seperti ini ya??
Diambil dari berbagai sumber...
Diambil dari berbagai sumber...
Monday, January 6, 2014
Macroprudential Department..
Halo Halo...
I just want to update my new experience. I had just recently been transferred to another department called: Macroprudential Department. Its a whole new experience, although my job desc is the same: developing domestic financial market. But since i am now in macroprudential department, i need to look the connections between the effort to deepen the financial market, and its impact to financial system stability. That's a whole new ball game. Its a different thought process.
Paul Fisher, Member of MPC BOE, mentioned that Financial markets are fundamentally about risk-taking: credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk are basic components of even the safest and soundest banking systems. As a society, we need risk taking as part of the process of allocating capital to competing ends. And people who take risks – at least with their own money or their own careers – need to be rewarded (appropriately!) for that risk or they won’t take it. So we are not in a world where, as a matter of policy, we want to eliminate financial risk. The key is for financial risks to be properly appraised, priced, managed and provisioned. And we should discourage some of the cross-subsidisation of different types of risk taking if we want risk capital to be appropriately allocated. That includes any perceived public subsidy, which is what the ICB recommendations are about. We also want to avoid profits being made out of dishonest practices such as insufficient provision of information, the deliberate mis-pricing of risk or other market abuses. The new
Financial Conduct Authority will have an important role to play in that.
Wow.. what a different ball game. FInancial market cannot longer be developed without supervision, despite the fact that the financial world still need risks component. Need to learn some more... have a great week ahead...
I just want to update my new experience. I had just recently been transferred to another department called: Macroprudential Department. Its a whole new experience, although my job desc is the same: developing domestic financial market. But since i am now in macroprudential department, i need to look the connections between the effort to deepen the financial market, and its impact to financial system stability. That's a whole new ball game. Its a different thought process.
Paul Fisher, Member of MPC BOE, mentioned that Financial markets are fundamentally about risk-taking: credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk are basic components of even the safest and soundest banking systems. As a society, we need risk taking as part of the process of allocating capital to competing ends. And people who take risks – at least with their own money or their own careers – need to be rewarded (appropriately!) for that risk or they won’t take it. So we are not in a world where, as a matter of policy, we want to eliminate financial risk. The key is for financial risks to be properly appraised, priced, managed and provisioned. And we should discourage some of the cross-subsidisation of different types of risk taking if we want risk capital to be appropriately allocated. That includes any perceived public subsidy, which is what the ICB recommendations are about. We also want to avoid profits being made out of dishonest practices such as insufficient provision of information, the deliberate mis-pricing of risk or other market abuses. The new
Financial Conduct Authority will have an important role to play in that.
Wow.. what a different ball game. FInancial market cannot longer be developed without supervision, despite the fact that the financial world still need risks component. Need to learn some more... have a great week ahead...
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Just a thought
Wah wah.. saking lamanya nggak di update, sampe lupa kalo punya blog ini :)
Sekedar update, dalam beberapa waktu terakhir di bulan Agustus 2013, nilai tukar rupiah terus mengalami pelemahan.. ada apa??? There are few things that I wanna share today:
Perekonomian Indonesia sejak tahun 2009 tumbuh rata-rata pada kisaran 6% yoy, meningkat dari 4.5% di Q1 2009, hingga tertingginya 6.8% pada Q4 2010. Tingkat inflasi juga dapat dipertahankan stabil pada kisaran 5% yoy sepanjang 2010-2013, dengan tingkat inflasi terendah terjadi pada level 3.8% di tahun 2011.
Namun demikian, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terus digenjot tinggi didukung oleh inflasi yang terus ditekan rendah memakan biaya yang sangat besar. Indonesia sejak tahun 2012 telah mengalami twin deficit: defisit fiskal + defisit neraca pembayaran.
Tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang ditopang oleh tingkat konsumsi mencapai lebih dari 60% dari total PDB kita. Tingkat konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia yang tinggi ini ternyata tidak ditopang oleh produksi barang dalam negeri yang juga tinggi, melainkan oleh tingkat impor yang semakin tinggi, bahkan sejak awal tahun 2012, impor barang dan jasa sudah lebih tinggi dari ekspor kita.
Sebagai gambaran, ekspor non-migas Indonesia sangat bergantung pada ekspor yang sifatnya komoditi, seperti hasil pertanian dan hasil tambang yang mencakup sekitar 35% dari total ekspor kita. Hasil manufaktur memang mendominasi sektor ekspor kita (65%), namun penyumbang terbesar masih sangat didominasi oleh produk-produk tradisional seperti tekstil dan produk tekstil, peralatan listrik, minyak sawit, karet olahan, dan kertas atau barang dari kertas. Sementara produk-produk ini sudah kalah bersaing dengan produk India dan China. Di sisi lain, impor non-migas Indonesia didominasi oleh barang-barang yang sifatnya konsumtif (90% dari total impor), seperti: makanan jadi, pupuk, makanan ternak, peralatan listrik, produk logam dasar, kendaraan bermotor, suku cadang kendaraan, komputer, pesawat udara.
Melihat perilaku ini, maka dalam beberapa waktu ke depan volume ekspor kita akan terus mengalami penurunan seiring dengan semakin berkurangnya cadangan bahan tambang, dan impor kita akan semakin membengkak seiring dengan terus meningkatnya jumlah penduduk Indonesia. Ditambah lagi kita belum mampu meningkatkan ekspor jasa kita ke mitra dagang kita, sehingga tidak heran apabila defisit neraca transaksi berjalan (current account deficit) akan terus semakin meningkat. Pada Q2 2013, current account deficit sudah mencapai -4.4% dari total GDP
Dengan kondisi ini, tidak juga heran apabila nilai tukar Rupiah terus mengalami pelemahan. Dengan belum membaiknya perekonomian negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia, serta masih tingginya impor barang untuk memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi dalam negeri, ditambah dengan semakin derasnya capital outflow sebagai dampak dari kemungkinan adanya kebijakan dari The Federal Reserves untuk mengurangi quantitative easing (tappering off), maka demand terhadap US Dollar masih akan terus tinggi, jauh melebihi supply US Dollar yang berasal dari para eksportir. Dalam hal ini, upaya menjaga nilai tukar rupiah pada level saat ini (10.000-11.000 per US dollar) akan menggerus cadangan devisa.
So, jangan heran kalau nilai tukar rupiah masih terus akan melemah, sepanjang belum ada kebijakan signifikan dari pemerintah untuk meningkatkan infrastruktur dan industri hilir, serta mendorong peningkatan produksi dalam negeri untuk meningkatkan ekspor non-komoditi dan mengurangi impor produk-produk konsumtif....
Sekedar update, dalam beberapa waktu terakhir di bulan Agustus 2013, nilai tukar rupiah terus mengalami pelemahan.. ada apa??? There are few things that I wanna share today:
Perekonomian Indonesia sejak tahun 2009 tumbuh rata-rata pada kisaran 6% yoy, meningkat dari 4.5% di Q1 2009, hingga tertingginya 6.8% pada Q4 2010. Tingkat inflasi juga dapat dipertahankan stabil pada kisaran 5% yoy sepanjang 2010-2013, dengan tingkat inflasi terendah terjadi pada level 3.8% di tahun 2011.
Namun demikian, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terus digenjot tinggi didukung oleh inflasi yang terus ditekan rendah memakan biaya yang sangat besar. Indonesia sejak tahun 2012 telah mengalami twin deficit: defisit fiskal + defisit neraca pembayaran.
Tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang ditopang oleh tingkat konsumsi mencapai lebih dari 60% dari total PDB kita. Tingkat konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia yang tinggi ini ternyata tidak ditopang oleh produksi barang dalam negeri yang juga tinggi, melainkan oleh tingkat impor yang semakin tinggi, bahkan sejak awal tahun 2012, impor barang dan jasa sudah lebih tinggi dari ekspor kita.
Sebagai gambaran, ekspor non-migas Indonesia sangat bergantung pada ekspor yang sifatnya komoditi, seperti hasil pertanian dan hasil tambang yang mencakup sekitar 35% dari total ekspor kita. Hasil manufaktur memang mendominasi sektor ekspor kita (65%), namun penyumbang terbesar masih sangat didominasi oleh produk-produk tradisional seperti tekstil dan produk tekstil, peralatan listrik, minyak sawit, karet olahan, dan kertas atau barang dari kertas. Sementara produk-produk ini sudah kalah bersaing dengan produk India dan China. Di sisi lain, impor non-migas Indonesia didominasi oleh barang-barang yang sifatnya konsumtif (90% dari total impor), seperti: makanan jadi, pupuk, makanan ternak, peralatan listrik, produk logam dasar, kendaraan bermotor, suku cadang kendaraan, komputer, pesawat udara.
Melihat perilaku ini, maka dalam beberapa waktu ke depan volume ekspor kita akan terus mengalami penurunan seiring dengan semakin berkurangnya cadangan bahan tambang, dan impor kita akan semakin membengkak seiring dengan terus meningkatnya jumlah penduduk Indonesia. Ditambah lagi kita belum mampu meningkatkan ekspor jasa kita ke mitra dagang kita, sehingga tidak heran apabila defisit neraca transaksi berjalan (current account deficit) akan terus semakin meningkat. Pada Q2 2013, current account deficit sudah mencapai -4.4% dari total GDP
Dengan kondisi ini, tidak juga heran apabila nilai tukar Rupiah terus mengalami pelemahan. Dengan belum membaiknya perekonomian negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia, serta masih tingginya impor barang untuk memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi dalam negeri, ditambah dengan semakin derasnya capital outflow sebagai dampak dari kemungkinan adanya kebijakan dari The Federal Reserves untuk mengurangi quantitative easing (tappering off), maka demand terhadap US Dollar masih akan terus tinggi, jauh melebihi supply US Dollar yang berasal dari para eksportir. Dalam hal ini, upaya menjaga nilai tukar rupiah pada level saat ini (10.000-11.000 per US dollar) akan menggerus cadangan devisa.
So, jangan heran kalau nilai tukar rupiah masih terus akan melemah, sepanjang belum ada kebijakan signifikan dari pemerintah untuk meningkatkan infrastruktur dan industri hilir, serta mendorong peningkatan produksi dalam negeri untuk meningkatkan ekspor non-komoditi dan mengurangi impor produk-produk konsumtif....
Monday, May 20, 2013
Another Journey to KL
Another trip to KL, and managed to take this pictures... enjoy...
Love the brightness of Petronas Tower...
Love the brightness of Petronas Tower...
Monday, June 11, 2012
It's been a while
Hey! It's been a while since I updated this blog. I recently moved to a new department (again!). I am currently working real close with DG. It's a brand new experience, and I would really love to explore new things.
I am currently looking at is the connection between NDF Market and Spot market. One recent paper mentioned that there is dual connection between the two, which offshore NDF price effected domestic spot price, and vice versa. I also become know that Korea and Philippines allowed NDF to be traded onshore. I wonder what is the reason behind. To my knowledge, NDF is growing because of restrictions available in domestic FX market. Therefore, if authorities are worried with NDF Market, I would suggest to lift partly or mostly the FX restrictions in onshore market, so that hedgers can go onshore to hedge their position, instead of hedging it offshore through NDF. So, why allowing NDF onshore, if you can eliminate the NDF market instead?
Do you have any ideas?
I am currently looking at is the connection between NDF Market and Spot market. One recent paper mentioned that there is dual connection between the two, which offshore NDF price effected domestic spot price, and vice versa. I also become know that Korea and Philippines allowed NDF to be traded onshore. I wonder what is the reason behind. To my knowledge, NDF is growing because of restrictions available in domestic FX market. Therefore, if authorities are worried with NDF Market, I would suggest to lift partly or mostly the FX restrictions in onshore market, so that hedgers can go onshore to hedge their position, instead of hedging it offshore through NDF. So, why allowing NDF onshore, if you can eliminate the NDF market instead?
Do you have any ideas?
Monday, September 6, 2010
Financial Market Deepening
1 Month ago, i was moved to a new department which mostly deal with the local currency (rupiah). Its a very interesting step taken by the leaders to put jobs and things in order. So now the new department deals with rupiah as well as foreign currencies management. And what interest me is that the new direction is to forego financial deepening in the domestic financial market.
What is financial deepening? what measures can be used? what indicators to be followed? Big question mark... I took a look at some literatures that discuss about financial deepening: Levine, Ross: Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Agenda, Oct 1996; Tsetsokos, George and Varangis, Panos: The Structure of Derivatives Exchanges: Lessons from Developed and Emerging Markets, Dec 1997; and many others, and apparently they have different measurements to measure financial deepening.
As you all probably know that, Indonesian financial market is hardly deep. Forex market turnover reach only just $4 billion per day, slightly below that of Philippines ($5 bio). Bonds market has only been full of government bonds, money market and repo market are also thin market, not to mention the repo. The stock market is also 100% outright transactions, and no options and derivatives yet. Stock market is full of speculative transactions and have already been overvalue since the beginning of this year... small buyer or seller can move the market..
Financial market deepening is big steps with big moves, and needs everyone to take parts in this program..
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Hunting for Oyster
Just curious where can I get them. I've had them in Syailendra Restaurant in JW Mariott Hotel, Kuningan, Jakarta. But they recently rarely serve this menu, I think because of the fact that this fresh oyster is expensive, while people eat them like drinking water. Other restaurant I heard serve this menu as the all u can eat menu is Endogin @ Mulia Hotel, but have never tried it. Do you know where else to get this yummy fresh raw oyster? Im dying to know...
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