Puasa...

Selamat Menunaikan Ibadah Puasa. Mohon maaf lahir dan batin ya..

argh...

argh... everyone here has moved on. What the hell am I doing here???..

In House Training - Dealer

Hi hi.. its been a while since i updated this blog. I've been very busy with in house training as a dealer. You probably surprise. Yeah after all this years i avoided to be a dealer, I finally decided to train as dealer. NOt that I want to be a dealer, as you probably know that I have very bad experiences as a commodity dealer in BBJ, I want to learn the science and the knowledge. It turns out that a lot of things in finance that I totally don't understand. Amazing to know what people have done in finance. Big Wow!

First of all, I would like to introduce Interest rate futures. My first thought on IR futures is that you just buy or sell futures on interest rate, and net settle the spread between futures contract and the spot contract. It turns out is not that easy. Its a hedging instruments. You buy a IR futures contract in order to hedge your interest rate exposure. Let say you want to borrow in 3 months and still not knowing what is your rate payment. You hedge them by selling IR futures, that is hedging for IR to go up. If IR go up in 3 months, then you will make money from the IR Futures, while you're locking your IR rate for borrowing. The size of a contract is $1 mio per contract. Isn't that complicated?

I've also noticed that interest rate swap is not that easy. At first, I thought that IRS is just simply exchanging floating rate to a fixed rate. On the other hand, you can definitely make profit by making a second swap. Example, you borrow at LIBOR + 50 bps, and you want to pay them fix. So you hedge it using IRS, by paying, say 6%, and receiving LIBOR, and so in net, you pay fix 6.5%. During the lifetime of the IRS, interest rate goes up say to 8%, and you want to make profit out of it. Therefore, you do second swap with another conterparty, and receiving 8% by paying LIBOR. So at the end, you only pay LIBOR - 150 bps. Nice...

I will update it later... cheers..

Slide Presentation

Just make this slide presentations on forex transactions but in Bahasa Indonesia. Want to upload it in this blog, but how can I do it?
hmm.. curious

Deleveraging

Just received new word at the office recently, called "deleveraging". What the hell is that??? Its an unwinding position for asset managers, hedge funds, investors, and convert it into safe haven currency. Before crisis, investors tend to borrow and invest the money in the emerging market (similar to carry trade) --> called leveraging. And when the crisis hits, investors liquidate their investments and convert the money to USD. That is what happen recently, and cause Rupiah to fall off the cliff. Fortunately, the election has gone positive, and investors see Indonesia as the alternative investment point as Thailand is currently in deep trouble. Rupiah today touch 10900, much lower than last month's of 12000.

CV

Just want to add my cv, in case I forgot of anything:
1998 Have my Bachelor degree in Economics @ Padjadjaran University, Bandung, Indonesia
1998-1999 Industry Analyst and Business Development Function @ PT Timah, Indonesia
2000 Business Consultant @ PT Grasindo
2000 Have my English certificate from ELI, UBC, Canada
2002 Have my MBA in Finance @ Loyola Univ. Chicago, USA
2002 Audiovisual intern @ Loyola Univ. Chicago, USA.
2002-2004 Marketing Analyst @ BHP Billiton, Indonesia
2004-Now Financial Analyst @ BI, Indonesia

Oh Keretaku...

Udah lama nggak curhat. Jadi kepengen curhat berat tentang kondisi kereta api Indonesia, terutama KRL Jabotabek. Seperti dijelaskan dalam websitenya, "Kereta api di Indonesia ditandai dengan pengayunan cangkul pertama oleh Gubernur Jendral Hindia Belanda, Mr. L.A.J Baron Sloet van den Beele di desa Kemijen Jum’at tanggal 17 Juni 1864...". Jadi bisa dibayangkan, industri kereta api di Indonesia sudah ada 145 tahun yang lalu. 145 tahun yang lalu! sudah lebih tua dari negara Indonesia sendiri. Tapi apa yang sudah dicapai oleh industri kereta api di Indonesia? menurut saya: hampir NIHIL!. Kemajuan terpesat terjadi beberapa tahun yang lalu ketika ada kereta api argo gede, argo lawu, dll. Tapi revolusi besar-besaran di kereta api indonesia, hampir tidak ada. Pertambahan rel juga kayaknya nggak ada? Apalagi sekarang naik pesawat terbang di pulau Jawa ongkosnya hampir sama dengan naik kereta api.

Sebelum itu semua terjadi, ada satu jalur yang menurut saya luar biasa padat, yaitu Jakarta-Bandung. Sebelum adanya tol Cipularang, kereta Jakarta-Bandung adalah jalur primadona, semua orang naik kereta. Bayangkan berapa penghasilan PT KAI dari jalur ini. Tapi apa yang didapat penumpang? nol! Keretanya makin butut, Jamnya makin molor, what not?!

Saya juga ingin cerita tentang pengalaman pribadi saya. saya tinggal didaerah pondok kelapa, dan selalu naik mobil ke thamrin. Makin hari, kekantor dan pulang makin stress karena macet. Minimum 2 jam dijalan, terutama waktu pulang. Eh.. trus saya diajak temen naik kereta, saya pikir daripada jadi gila dijalan, saya naik KRL aja. wah.. ternyata enak juga. pake AC, lumayan bersih, dan nggak terlalu rame juga. Lantas, suatu kali ada kejadian listrik mati, nunggu di dalam krl 15-20 menit. OK lah... ada juga kejadian signal rusak, nunggu 20-30 menit, masih OK. 1 bulan, 2 bulan, saya mulai enek.. karena masalahnya sama! kalo nggak listrik mati, ya signal rusak! Saya heran, 145 tahun kereta api Indonesia berdiri, masalahnya sama, listrik mati atau signal rusak! ngapain aja PT KAI 145 tahun berdiri? ngebenerin signal sama listrik aja kok susah bener ya? saya juga nggak ngerti, yang dimaksud signal rusak tuh apa? lampu merah? signal apa sih yang rusak?

Coba tengok negara lain, nggak usah jauh-jauh: Singapore aja. Saya sangat iri dengan perkeretaapian Singapore (MRT). Bersih, bagus, tepat waktu, elektronis, nggak ada signal rusak, nggak ada listrik mati. Kenapa kereta api kita nggak bisa seperti itu? Kenapa?

Akhirnya, karena setiap kali naik kereta selalu bermasalah, akhirnya saya balik lagi naik mobil, dan harus rela 2 jam waktu saya hilang dijalan... yah mendingan dari pada naik krl yang juntrungannya nggak jelas. tiba tiba mogok dan nggak jalan?!... aneh.. bener bener aneh..

Derivative Structured Product

Its been known that Mr. Buffet is against derivative transactions. "Its a mass destructions", he claimed. Well, Mr. Buffet's view is proven. First, Subprime mortagage, which is a derivative of mortgage loan. And now KIKO options, which has brought down over 500 Small and Medium Enterprises in Korea, and other companies in Brazil, Mexico, and for a smaller part, in Indonesia. What has gone wrong? First of All, First half of 2008 has been very stable, and the outlook is promising for emerging market. But then the US crisis hit, and the impact is way above expectations, and depreciate emerging market currencies. Companies, who entered this structured product KIKO options, bet that the local currencies will not depreciate more than certain level, even they bet that local currencies will continue to appreciate. As a result, companies are obliged to deliver money more than they have received when they gained from the contract, and this has eaten their working capital, and therefore several of them have filed chapter 11. In Korea, some companies have filed a class action suit against banks, and according to some articles on the Internet, they have won, and therefore did not have to finish the contract. One of the reason is that the court has agreed that this contract is no longer rational as the currency depreciation and or volatility is way above expectation. Banks are now facing potential loss of around $1 billion. In Brazil and Mexico are even higher.

Same thing happen in Indonesia. The exporter companies claim that they use this instrument as a hedging. Well, I don't believe it. This is pure return enhancement. Companies are provided better cash flow than that of in the spot market, and therefore companies buy this product, and ignore all the risks that possibly existed. Due to crisis, companies are now in trouble, and banks is facing losses too, since they do this transaction back to back (pass on to other banks).

Then, what is KIKO options, or callable forward, or what not? Its a contract that provide customers with zero premium and a better rate (strike rate) then the spot market rate. If the strike rate <> spot market rate, customer will have to pay the difference twice as big as if they profit. This is obviously not a hedging instrument, but definately a speculative instrument.

Well? do you want to enter this product???

Resolution 2009

Wow! since the crisis, I haven't been able to "upgrade" myself yet with books, articles, papers, etc. I need to re-focus on this issue, in order to load my self with amunition for pursuing my next project...
This should be my resolution in 2009: Have a proposal... please remind me...
cheers..

Check out my other site

http://tumbletotspondokgede.890m.com